iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF [EZU] Stock Forecast

The ECB will almost surely keep rates on hold at the December meeting. The question is to what extent it will align with the market's aggressive pricing for rate cuts in 2024.

The ECB hike cycle seems over, but the shockwaves of tightening will still shape the eurozone economy in 2024. Traditional lags in transmission are now accompanied by longer ones in average interest burden increases, potentially extending the impact of tightening.

Next week's challenge for the European Central Bank is how to keep all options open without sounding too dovish but also not too detached from reality. The weak macro economic backdrop no longer justifies rate hikes, even for the hawks.

After hitting a new all-time high in February, the FTSE has struggled to find any sustainable support, hurt by concerns over China, the UK's struggling economy, and high interest rates across the world. We have had some positive data out of China, the UK, and the US this week, which may mean the worst days are behind us.

Rising wages and higher incomes are boosting Europe's economic recovery, but policymakers may face challenges due to population aging and shrinking workforce. Demographics and shorter working weeks mean employers face fierce competition to find qualified workers and must pay more to retain them.

If anything, developments since the September meeting have made it even easier for the European Central Bank to pause at its next meeting. As much as the ECB has tried to keep the door to further rate hikes open since the September decision, recent developments have clearly complicated this position.

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF is a large and liquid ETF that offers diversification into quality European stocks. EZU is heavily invested in Germany and France, which are experiencing weak economic fundamentals and declining PMIs. The current valuation of EZU suggests that it may move lower in the next few months, making it a sell at the moment.

Before yesterday's ECB meeting, there was a bit of uncertainty about whether the ECB would hike or not, with markets pricing in a 65% implied probability of a 25-bps hike. A break below the May low of 1.0635 still looks likely for the EUR/USD.

The ECB just announced its tenth consecutive policy rate hike since July last year, hiking all interest rates by 25bp. Higher inflation and inflation forecasts look like the main drivers of the hike.

Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not?

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF is a US stock and trading under the symbol EZU

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF stock price is $46.45 today.

Yes, iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF is a publicly traded company.