Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF [FREL] Stock Forecast

In recent years, specialized technology-adjacent property types such as towers, data centers and industrial have gained prominence in the real estate market due to changes in consumer behavior, technological advancements, and their critical role in supporting the modern economy. The REIT universe looks much different today, appropriately reflecting the changes that are happening all around us. REITs are not just constrained to malls and offices; quite the contrary, the REIT sector is a dynamic one, with exposure to both secular growth dynamics and sources of bulwark stability.

Among the top-performing property sectors this year, the Data Center REIT rebound has been fueled by reports of "booming" demand for artificial intelligence ("AI") focused data center chips. Even before the Nvidia report, Data Center REITs were on the upswing in early 2023 after an impressive slate of earnings results showed improved pricing power and record-high occupancy rates. Ironically, this AI-wave comes just as Data Center REITs became a trendy “short” idea centered on a thesis of weak pricing power and competition from the "hyperscalers" - Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.

A lot of investors appear to think that REITs will drop lower. They believe that their valuations aren't low enough. Do they have a point? We take a closer look and issue a warning to those REIT investors who are trying to time the market.

The new pariah of the commercial real estate sector, Office REITs, have remained in free-fall in recent months, plunging another 30% this year following a plunge of nearly 40% last year. Just how bad is it? The surge in interest rates has turned a weak-but-manageable situation into a bleak one, but there is more nuance than what the prevailing narrative would suggest.

You wouldn't know it by reading the mainstream financial press, but there's more to commercial real estate than office buildings. Obscured by office pain, REITs delivered surprisingly strong first quarter results. Of the 83 equity REITs that provide full-year Funds from Operations ("FFO") guidance, 37 (44%) raised their full-year earnings outlook, while 5 (6%) lowered guidance.

U.S. equity markets finished lower on a turbulent week after the Federal Reserve continued its historically-aggressive monetary tightening course, sparking renewed turmoil in the regional banking sector. After closing at its highest levels since early February last week, the S&P 500 slipped 0.8% this week, using a late-week rebound to pare its steepest four-day declines since the SVB collapse.

No slowdown here. After the worst year of performance on record in 2022, Industrial REITs have rebounded this year after earnings results showed a surprising re-strengthening of property-level fundamentals. Recent earnings results showed that demand continues to substantially outpace available supply. Rent growth reaccelerated in early-2023, with rental spreads averaging over 40%, while occupancy rates climbed to fresh record.

U.S. equity markets extended their rebound this week as a strong slate of earnings reports clashed with renewed concerns over financial instability and economic data that provided fodder for both bulls and bears. Closing at its highest levels since early February, the S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, but gains were skewed towards larger companies. The Mid-Cap 400 slipped 0.3%, and the Small-Cap 600 declined 1.0%.

Housing Recession Is Over.

The REIT sector fell again in March with a -6.11% total return. Large cap (-1.99%) and mid cap (-4.56%) REITs saw modestly negative total returns in March, while small caps (-6.76%) and micro caps (-15.50%) were deeper in the red.