iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF [GOVT] Stock Forecast

It generally takes a few years for changes in Federal Reserve rates to fully impact bond fund dividends. Bond funds are still benefitting from prior rate hikes. Perhaps by enough to cancel out any future rate cuts. By my estimations, and under current Fed guidance, most bond funds would only start to see declining dividends in 2025, at the earliest.

The iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF is a high duration ETF sensitive to speculated rates and Fed policies. Powell's remarks suggest rate cuts may not come as soon as expected, but failure of soft landing hopes could bring down longer-term rates which would actually be good for GOVT. Prices of longer duration bonds have gone up due to lower than expected debt issuance and potential for rate cuts but only in response to a higher probability of recession.

Chaim Siegel of Elazar Advisors has been bullish for most of 2023 and remains bullish for 2024. Jobless claims are a key measure to watch as they provide a real-time view of the overall economy and can indicate market risk.

There's much to love about higher interest rates.

Treasury Bonds have rallied in recent weeks but remain on a broader downtrend. In contrast with relatively resilient economic data, far too many rate cuts have been priced into the curve at this point. With fundamental issues around the deficit and debt issuance path still unaddressed, the risk/reward still seems unfavorable for low-cost Treasury Bond ETFs.

The U.S. government appears headed for a shutdown. I look at four ways that this could disrupt the REIT sector. I also share my approach to REITs right now and share my top picks.

The market is showing signs of weakness and lacks sustainable upside momentum. The recent sell-off has broken key moving averages, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

Fitch has made headlines this week for its downgrade of US sovereign debt. But the big step up in issuances outlined at this month's refunding is arguably the more important credit event. The iShares US Treasury Bond ETF offers a solid yield but could underperform in the coming months amid increased cheapening pressure.

Hello! For this week's ETF Wrap, I spoke with BlackRock's Steve Laipply on investor demand for exchange-traded funds that buy bonds.

Investors were net sellers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and ETFs) for the first week in six, redeeming a net $2.1 billion for the LSEG Lipper fund-flows week ended Wednesday, May 31. Equity ETFs witnessed net inflows for the second week in a row, attracting a little less than $7.2 billion for the most recent fund-flows week. For the first week in four, taxable fixed income ETFs experienced net outflows, handing back $957 million this week.

iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF is a US stock and trading under the symbol GOVT

iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF stock price is $22.16 today.

Yes, iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF is a publicly traded company.