Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF [KBWY] Stock Forecast

Making its debut on 12/02/2010, smart beta exchange traded fund Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF (KBWY) provides investors broad exposure to the Real Estate ETFs category of the market.

A lot of investors appear to think that REITs will drop lower. They believe that their valuations aren't low enough. Do they have a point? We take a closer look and issue a warning to those REIT investors who are trying to time the market.

You wouldn't know it by reading the mainstream financial press, but there's more to commercial real estate than office buildings. Obscured by office pain, REITs delivered surprisingly strong first quarter results. Of the 83 equity REITs that provide full-year Funds from Operations ("FFO") guidance, 37 (44%) raised their full-year earnings outlook, while 5 (6%) lowered guidance.

U.S. equity markets finished lower on a turbulent week after the Federal Reserve continued its historically-aggressive monetary tightening course, sparking renewed turmoil in the regional banking sector. After closing at its highest levels since early February last week, the S&P 500 slipped 0.8% this week, using a late-week rebound to pare its steepest four-day declines since the SVB collapse.

No slowdown here. After the worst year of performance on record in 2022, Industrial REITs have rebounded this year after earnings results showed a surprising re-strengthening of property-level fundamentals. Recent earnings results showed that demand continues to substantially outpace available supply. Rent growth reaccelerated in early-2023, with rental spreads averaging over 40%, while occupancy rates climbed to fresh record.

U.S. equity markets extended their rebound this week as a strong slate of earnings reports clashed with renewed concerns over financial instability and economic data that provided fodder for both bulls and bears. Closing at its highest levels since early February, the S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, but gains were skewed towards larger companies. The Mid-Cap 400 slipped 0.3%, and the Small-Cap 600 declined 1.0%.

The big yields in these shares will draw in many investors. Huge dividend increases may be required when floating rates kick in. We're including my largest position.

The REIT sector fell again in March with a -6.11% total return. Large cap (-1.99%) and mid cap (-4.56%) REITs saw modestly negative total returns in March, while small caps (-6.76%) and micro caps (-15.50%) were deeper in the red.

U.S. equity markets finished broadly higher this past week after a critical slate of inflation data provided further evidence of a definitive cool-down in inflationary pressures. After narrowly snapping a three-week winning streak in the prior week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.8% this week, while the Mid-Cap 400 and Small-Cap 600 posted gains of over 1%.

Storage REITs are the best-performing property sector this year after lagging in late 2022, lifted by surprisingly solid earnings results and a thawing of the previously icy-cold housing market. Storage demand is driven largely by housing activity – specifically, home sales and rental market turnover - and the recent moderation in mortgage rates has eased concern of a deepening housing recession.