iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF [REM] Stock Forecast

Last week was marked by a few market-moving events including the signing of debt-ceiling debt, upbeat jobs data and weak manufacturing data.

U.S. equity markets snapped a three-week winning streak while benchmark interest rates dipped to seven-month lows after a critical slate of employment data revealed some cracking in the long-resilient labor markets. Following its strongest weekly advance in five months, the S&P 500 finished fractionally lower this week, while the Mid-Cap 400 and Small-Cap 600 each posted steeper declines of over 2.5%.

U.S. equity markets concluded a wild first-quarter with their best week of 2023 as easing contagion concerns and further evidence of cooling price pressures lifted markets to a third-straight weekly gain. Pushing its gains to 7.5% for the quarter, the S&P 500 posted its best week since last November with gains of 3.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed into "bull market".

REM invests in mREITs that hold residential and commercial mortgages. I believe regional bank deposits are structurally unattractive vs. money center banks and money market funds. Whatever solution is used to solve this crisis will lead to lower profitability for regional banks.

U.S. equity markets tumbled this week after the sudden collapse of a pair of technology-focused banks sparked concerns over financial stability and overshadowed a generally solid slate of employment data. Effectively erasing all of its gains for the year and posting its worst week since September 2022, the S&P 500 dipped 4.5% while the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap benchmarks plunged 7%.

Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies. REITs enter earnings season with some momentum amid the recent moderation in interest rates and hopes of a 'softish' economic landing following a punishing year of stock price performance.

REM is trading somewhat near levels when an unmitigated COVID-19 situation was being priced into the markets. While there might be a play in MBSs, REM is a tough nut to crack because we don't know enough about its credit profile.

If I had to distill my current macro outlook down into a sentence or two it would be “watch everything housing related”. The CPI is still showing rents rising.

Pressured by the broader housing cooldown, Apartment REITs have been among the weaker-performing property sectors over the past quarter despite achieving record-setting rent growth throughout the summer. While the era of 20% rent increases on new leases is over, there remains significant “embedded” rent growth in below-market renewals that should power impressive FFO growth into 2023.

Mortgage rates have not been this high since before the housing crisis. And while the housing market is slowing, prices are still high.